Will Huawei smartphones disappear?
Between China and the U.S. basically, it started on May 15 when Donald Trump signed what's called an executive order, it's a kind of decree that put Huawei on the blacklist of companies with which U.S. companies can no longer collaborate, and can no longer share their technologies, so from that point on, companies don't really have a choice.
On May 19th Google announced the termination of its commercial relationship with Huawei, four days after Donald Trump signed this famous document in the wake of Google, which announced the same thing it is Qualcomm and then Intel.
Qualcomm provides modems to Huawei, Intel provides processors for servers and Huawei's computers, and so it's already a big blow, so on May 21st, there's a little lull because the government partially lifts restrictions but only for the existing wholesale it allows Huawei to continue to collaborate with U.S. companies but only for the existing networks and for the existing devices.
In order not to stop everything at once and in order to be able to continue to make things work properly for what exists and what is already on the market and is in fact on May 22nd, it's the coup de grâce, that is to say, that ARM which is a British company that deals with the design of the chips that really does the primary design of the chips, it also breaks its business relationship with Huawei.
So it's the architecture of the processors, the license and the patents that Huawei no longer has access to, so from that point on we wonder what's going to happen, on May 23rd richard ayew, who is the president and CEO of Huawei, announces that they no longer have access to Microsoft software, so they no longer have access to Windows software, it's simply for the PCs that Huawei manufactures and we know that the PC sector at Huawei is quite huge.
The consequences for the mobile owners Huawei and Honor
During the week they announced a new smartphone in the middle of a storm the day after tomorrow. Tuesday Honor had canceled the post-conference interviews because we knew it was going to revolve around this subject, but not at all-around smartphones, so it's actually complicated for them to make press releases.So indeed the a priori consequences on current phones will be nil, that is to say, that current phones (the agreements are signed with Huawei) so we will continue to have access to the play store we will continue to have access to Google services is still the crux of the war is the google services, that is to say, everything that is behind the scenes and that runs google applications on the phones.
But also the Android updates it could be assured the only concern is that Huwaei loses its preview developer status on Android, so the updates may be very slow since they don't have privileged access to the google development kit.
The real concern is on future phones and all future hardware, that is to say, that Huawei won't have access to the play store nor to google services so it will be complicated for them to be able to set up a new OS.
It turns out that the world's largest economic power, the United States, enjoy a power of rights that goes far beyond their borders and therefore the fact of signing a presidential decree is a direct impact on U.S. companies, but it goes far beyond its borders, that is to say, that ARM, it is a British company even if it was bought by (SoftBank of the Japanese) which is not an American company, itself says it will stop working with Huawei because it has fears of being sued by the American justice if it continues to sell its platform and its architectures.
The other companies so Panasonic a Japanese company also said that it stopped working with Huawei because it has factories in the United States it produces certain elements in the United States that can be integrated components that can be integrated into Huawei technologies so we see that it goes well beyond the simple American framework, and STMicroelectronics in France the Franco-Italian company it has not said anything for the moment, so stay a little bit aside.
It's clear that, through this, we can see that American law, which in reality goes beyond the borders and makes all Huawei's suppliers fear American sanctions in one way or another.
That's what's huge, in fact, it even goes beyond the American framework, we're talking about Google, we're talking about Qualcomm, those who are already monstrous companies for monstrous suppliers is very important for Huawei, but it goes far beyond the American framework.
Is 5G in all this?
That is to say, we enter into conflict right away and then we negotiate and that's what we see with Huawei, we enter into conflict with China through Huawei by saying (basically it's a killing of Huawei today) we must be clear and we know very well, there is little chance that it will succeed because the Chinese government will not let itself be done so it simply means China, Finally, the Chinese government was coming back to the negotiating table, and if we find an agreement, we'll stop bothering Huawei.
That's what Donald Trump just said, that in the context of a trade agreement with China Huwaei could very well get out of it, all we had to do was simply get back to the negotiating table. In fact, Donald Trump said last night that he was prepared to actually bring in a trade agreement with China, so there's an open door.
The other point is a memo from goldman sachs and HSBC that came out last night, basically they say that if there were Chinese restrictions on Apple, almost a third of Apple's profit would evaporate overnight, basically, Apple would have produced about 40 million phones sold on the Chinese market and therefore the Chinese government could ban Apple from the domestic market.
There will inevitably be Chinese counter-measures, is the United States ready to engage in this type of conflict or are we simply in trade negotiations between two states? I tend to think that we're really in trade negotiations and that it's all going to end well in the end.
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